Among today’s CPG and wellness consumers, one word currently holds undisputed dominance: protein. 

Whether it’s wellness blogs, fitness podcasts, mainstream media, and even the new Food Pyramid, we’re hearing the same message – put protein first. This prompted Chris Costagli, NIQ’s VP of Thought Leadership - Food & Beverage to publish a new report completely focused on protein. Titled Protein’s Paradox, it breaks down the complex, fascinating, and sometimes alarming dynamics governing how shoppers interact with protein at the shelf, and while I was in Chicago recently I had the opportunity to chat with Chris to unpack some key takeaways from the report (see the full interview video below). 

"Protein is one of those things that's so important for consumers," Costagli says. "I do a lot of consumer research, and I always say a brand can make the best products, a retailer can shelve the best products, but at the end of the day, it's all about the shopper. And 60% of consumers are making a very intentional effort to have more protein every single day. That's obviously a huge base for our industry. And that's really what prompted me to do this research and understand what is happening with protein."

Yet, beneath this massive wave of consumer enthusiasm lies a profound structural issue – a disconnect that Costagli refers to as a paradox. While the majority of shoppers actively seek out protein, they simultaneously possess almost no understanding of how much they actually consume, nor how much their bodies genuinely require. Costagli's insights will help both retailers and brands to prep for their meetings at ECRM's Food & Beverage Sessions this summer and fall!

The Core of the Paradox: Intentionality vs. Execution

The modern grocery shopper is highly motivated but deeply unguided. While the average person is constantly bombarded with messages to prioritize protein, they lack a basic grasp of their personal intake or baseline nutritional needs. Costagli was quick to clarify that this lack of tracking isn't isolated to protein alone; it represents a systemic issue across the entire nutritional landscape.

"I don't think it's just protein; I think it's everything," Costagli says. "Think about sugar or fiber or calcium or any of the other things that show up on a nutritional panel. You can talk to most people, they have no idea how much they should be having. And most people aren't tracking. So not only do you not know how much you're supposed to have, you actually don't know how much you're even having. So there's this big disconnect."

This disconnect has become further exacerbated by shifting regulatory definitions. Updated dietary guidelines have raised recommended protein targets significantly, adjusting the metric from 0.8 grams per kilogram of body weight up to 1.4 grams. Despite these official pivots, public awareness remains remarkably low. NIQ's data reveals that only 13% of consumers feel genuinely familiar with the updated dietary guidelines and the changes they should be making to their eating habits.

The statistical breakdown of consumer confusion paints a stark picture of the current marketplace:

• 27% of consumers admit they have absolutely no idea how much protein they should consume daily.
• The remaining three-fourths of the market operate on pure guesswork, holding vague notions without empirical tracking.
• The distribution of understanding is scattered entirely across the board, leaving a massive opening for retail confusion.

Furthermore, trust in these changing guidelines varies dramatically across generational lines. Older generations, specifically Baby Boomers, express deep skepticism toward new dietary mandates. Having weathered decades of shifting food pyramids and contradictory nutritional advice, Boomers often choose to rely on long-held personal habits. Conversely, Gen Z consumers display far higher levels of trust toward the new frameworks. Having spent less time navigating the shifting sands of the food industry, younger cohorts are more willing to accept updated guidelines as factual baselines for their wellness journeys.

The Seductive Power of the Label: From Functional Food to Protein Vodka

Because consumers are fiercely seeking protein but lack the tools or knowledge to verify its nutritional context, the simple word "protein" has transformed into an extraordinarily potent marketing mechanism. Manufacturers have responded by deploying front-of-package protein claims with unprecedented aggression, often forcing the macronutrient into categories where it historically never existed.

According to NIQ’s research, 48% of consumers state that they have purchased a product simply because the word "protein" was prominently displayed on the front label.

"The word just by itself is powerful," Costagli says. "It sways consumers to make purchases. And I think in some cases it's welcomed by consumers, but in other categories, it just doesn't necessarily make sense. And consumers struggle to rationalize when protein shows up where it normally wouldn't."

This dynamic has led to extreme product formulations, including controversial novelties like protein-infused vodka and protein beers. While a consumer might humorously wonder if a protein martini can function as a viable post-workout beverage, this hyper-extension of marketing claims introduces severe friction.

Costagli warns that when brands rush to stuff protein into illogical categories, they risk alienating and confusing the shopper. Consumers struggle to rationalize a functional, health-focused benefit when it appears in highly indulgent or alcoholic formats. This over-saturation mirrors the historical boom and subsequent dilution of the word "natural.” When claims are applied too broadly or deceptively, it erodes the perceived value of the claim entirely, signaling to the shopper that the brand is merely trying to pull one over on them.

Demographics and the Diverse Journeys of Protein Consumers

The desire for protein cuts across every conceivable demographic boundary—men, women, older cohorts, and younger generations are all paying close attention. However, NIQ's research reveals that the underlying motivations and behavioral patterns diverge significantly based on age, gender, and socio-economic status.

The Impact of Age and Gender

As consumers age, their intentionality around protein intake becomes markedly more focused. This shift is primarily dictated by biological necessities, as aging bodies require higher-quality inputs to maintain muscle mass, slow down natural muscle degradation, and continue performing at peak levels. Yet, men and women approach this biological necessity via completely different pathways:
 

Despite these distinct demographic desires, a massive gap remains in how manufacturers communicate on their packaging. The industry remains firmly trapped in a legacy mindset. "When we think of protein, we think of big muscles, but that's not the only thing that protein does," Costagli says. However, brands rarely tailor their messaging to address hair, skin, or nail health, leaving a vast market of female and aging consumers underserved by front-of-package narratives.

The Income Divide: Maintenance vs. Aesthetics

Socio-economic background also plays a definitive role in how protein is perceived and utilized within the household. NIQ’s data highlights a sharp contrast between income brackets:
Lower-Income Households: Protein is viewed strictly through the lens of functionality, daily body maintenance, and structural necessity. It is about keeping the body going and satisfying foundational physical needs.
Higher-Income Households: Protein consumption shifts heavily toward the aesthetic. For wealthier shoppers, protein is tied to personal appearance, visible muscle definition, and fitness culture.

The GLP-1 Catalyst and the Breakfast Battlefield

The explosive rise of GLP-1 weight-management medications has altered the retail landscape, and protein is at the center of this revolution. For individuals utilizing GLP-1 therapies, maintaining an extremely high intake of protein – alongside dietary fiber – is an absolute medical and physical necessity to prevent lean muscle mass wasting.

Costagli notes that claims centered around muscle growth and muscle maintenance are tracking robustly with GLP-1 patients, triggering outsized sales growth in retail categories that successfully deliver dense, high-quality protein. This behavior has fundamentally shifted how these consumers approach the first meal of the day.

"Breakfast is really when protein is most on the mind for consumers," says Costagli. "And we see GLP-1 consumers still prioritizing breakfast, though they're eating less. But the big thing for them is when I have protein at breakfast, I want something that really is going to give me a good serving of that to really set the tone for the day that they have because they will be eating less potentially throughout the course of the day, smaller meals. They want to make sure that they're getting enough protein to keep themselves going."

This intense morning focus on protein is causing a severe shift away from traditional breakfast formats like sugary cereals, pancakes, and waffles. While convenience and time constraints dictate that shoppers still reach for quick options like yogurt or cereal, their formatting choices have changed. Consumers are migrating toward items like Greek yogurt and Icelandic skyr due to their superior protein-to-sugar ratios, frequently fortifying these bases with chia seeds and nuts.

Economic Friction and the Evolution of "OG" Proteins

While consumer demand for protein is at an all-time high, it is crashing directly into intense macroeconomic headwinds. The original protein categories – specifically fresh meat, beef, fish, and poultry – have borne the brunt of severe inflationary pressures. Fresh beef prices, in particular, have escalated significantly.

Crucially, inflation is not forcing consumers to deprioritize protein; instead, it is forcing them to alter how they shop the meat department. Costagli highlighted several core defensive shopping behaviors currently playing out at the shelf:

• Intra-Category Down-Trading: Shoppers stay within their preferred meat type (such as beef) but actively seek out significantly less expensive, lower-tier cuts.
• Species Shifting: Consumers migrate away from high-priced beef toward more affordable fresh meats, such as chicken or pork, which offer a lower cost-per-pound profile (See ECRM's Meat & Seafood Session).
• Alternative Exploration: Shoppers are expanding their portfolios to integrate seafood or plant-based protein alternatives to balance their weekly grocery budgets (See ECRM's Natural, Organic, Plant-Based & Gluten Free Food & Beverage Session).

However, the plant-based sector faces its own distinct hurdles, particularly within the dairy alternative aisle. Over the past few years, plant-based milk sales have experienced a steady decline. Costagli attributes a major portion of this downturn directly to the protein deficit. Leading plant-based milks often provide negligible protein per serving compared to traditional dairy milk. Even when plant-based options are artificially fortified, they frequently fall short of the natural nutritional density of dairy, causing protein-conscious breakfast shoppers to re-evaluate their choices.

The Consumer Tech Threat: Scanning Apps and the Trust Crisis

Perhaps the most alarming revelation from NIQ's research involves the rapid adoption of consumer-facing scanning apps and mobile artificial intelligence tools. These digital platforms allow shoppers to scan a product barcode in real-time, instantly stripping away a brand's curated marketing persona to reveal an objective, ingredient-by-ingredient safety and nutritional score.

Costagli shared a vivid personal anecdote illustrating how this technology completely upends traditional front-of-package marketing. Seeking a post-workout protein bar, he evaluated a product that checked every conceivable consumer box on its packaging: 20 grams of protein, under six grams of sugar, under 200 calories, gluten-free, and naturally flavored.

"It grabbed me because of the 20 grams of protein per serving," Costagli says. "But when you actually look under the hood using one of the scanning apps, that product gets a seven out of a hundred score because there's seven other artificial ingredients that are considered high risk ingredients. They're keeping you busy with the marketing on the front of the package. And I think consumers are seeing that now as they're using these apps. It's really bringing to the forefront what a product truly is while stripping away all of the marketing that brands work so hard to build and create that persona around what the brand is."

This data-driven transparency is fueling an unprecedented crisis of brand trust. Legacy food manufacturers that have spent 50 years cultivating consumer relationships are finding their authority completely erased by software applications that may have launched only days prior. NIQ's metrics on app user behavior are profoundly disruptive for traditional CPG marketing departments:

• 62% of app users trust the real-time evaluation of a scanning app exactly as much as they trust the product’s physical label.
• 27% of app users explicitly trust the app's nutritional rating more than the claims manufactured by the brand on the package.

Costagli warned that this shifts the burden of proof entirely onto the manufacturer. Brands can no longer mask ultra-processed formulations, chalky textures, and excessive synthetic additives by simply splashing an attractive "20g Protein" claim across the wrapper.

The Strategic Mandate: Education and the Rise of Gen Alpha

To survive this shifting landscape, brands and retailers must abandon ambiguous marketing and lean heavily into clear, contextualized consumer education. Merely stating that a product contains protein is no longer a viable long-term strategy, given that half a gram of protein and 30 grams of protein can both technically claim the ingredient.

Costagli urges brands to help shoppers stack their dietary sources by contextualizing exactly how a product fits into their daily requirements. For instance, labeling should explicitly state what percentage of an average daily target a single serving satisfies, or highlight specific thresholds – like the 30-gram benchmark recognized for muscle protein synthesis stimulation.

Looking ahead, this demand for transparency and clean nutritional density will only intensify as the industry prepares for the next generation of shoppers: Gen Alpha. While currently children, their purchasing baselines are being actively established by highly vigilant parents who scan labels, avoid ultra-processed shortcuts, and demand clean, natural profiles.

"From snacking research that we've just finished up, Gen Alpha's parents are paying attention to ingredients," Costagli says. "They're looking for protein. They're looking for more natural. So as I think about the Gen Alpha consumer, I think their expectation for protein is going to be higher than any generation before. And I think it's going to be the same, whether it's protein or fiber or sugar or natural. I think the baseline for that consumer is going to be a lot higher."

The brands that thrive tomorrow will be those that realign their formulations today – delivering authentic, clean, verifiable protein that can stand up to the scrutiny of an AI-powered marketplace.

Executive Summary

• The Core Paradox: 60% of modern consumers intentionally seek out more protein daily, yet 27% have absolutely no idea what their daily target should be, and the vast majority do not track their actual intake.
• Label Exploitation: Front-of-package marketing claims heavily dictate sales, with 48% of shoppers buying products solely due to a "protein" callout. This has led to over-hyped, questionable formulations in unexpected categories like alcohol.
• Demographic Bifurcation: Target motivations vary wildly; men focus on muscle and testosterone, women focus on hair/skin/nails, lower-income households prioritize day-to-day body maintenance, and higher-income shoppers seek aesthetic fitness goals.
• The GLP-1 & Breakfast Trend: Weight-management medications are driving explosive growth in protein-dense categories. GLP-1 users heavily prioritize nutrient-dense protein breakfasts to sustain lean mass while consuming fewer calories throughout the day.
• The Trust Crisis: Consumer scanning apps have triggered an institutional shift in trust. 62% of app users trust mobile scanning databases as much as physical packaging, and 27% trust the apps more than the manufacturer's label, exposing ultra-processed foods trying to pass as healthy options.